“Attention Walmart Shoppers”

Think you've seen spikes in prices? As Al Jolson was famous for saying, "you ain't seen nothing yet."

Both MAGA zealots and everyday old-school Republicans (if there are any of those remaining) have begun to voice their displeasure with Felon47’s on-again/off-again tariff plan. So far, the objections that have been raised have been primarily on principle, based on the obvious. Car parts from Canada and Mexico being hit with tariffs will obviously have a serious negative impact on the U.S. automobile industry. Tariffs on lumber will increase the cost of new housing.

But the impact of the sweeping tariffs haven’t yet fully reached the average U.S. consumer. All that is about to change, in a big way.

So-called reciprocal tariffs against China to the tune of 145% are about to hit middle America like a massive economic tornado. The tariffs Trump has imposed on Chinese imports have been matched by China with tariffs on U.S. goods, but there’s not exactly parity.

That’s because the raw materials that we need the most from China simply aren’t available elsewhere — most especially, rare earth minerals used in numerous tech products. We can’t produce them ourselves in sufficient quantities and they just aren’t able to be imported from other countries either.

China, on the other hand, can (and will) easily shift their imports of farm products such as soy and corn to other countries that will be happy to provide them. American farmers are already suffering the consequences of the loss of their contracts with the government as the result of the Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID, and they’re about to be hit even harder from the loss of exports to China.

But that’s just the beginning.

Red states and rural areas of blue states are where the preponderance of Trump voters live. Voters in those areas are generally less likely to have expendable cash. Rural areas also have fewer options for shopping.

And what’s the most American shopping magnet of all? Walmart.

Walmart is often the only option for in-person shopping that rural residents have. Over the last few decades, Walmart has become the corporate version of the town square.

But it’s been estimated that between 60% and 80% of products on Walmart shelves (exclusive of food products) are imported from China. The all but inevitable result of a 145% tariff (or whatever the percentage is based on Trump’s latest whim) is twofold:

• Certain products will go missing from store shelves, because it will be almost impossible to sell products that have been marked up far beyond their intrinsic value, so they won’t even get shipped.

• The products that do arrive from China will be drastically overpriced by the time they are stocked on Walmart’s shelves to offset the tariffs that have been imposed on them.

We’re already hearing reports of slowdowns or stoppages of shipping that affect not only the end consumer but also west coast port workers who would be receiving those products and truckers and rail workers who would get those products to their destinations.

I cite Walmart as the textbook example of the inevitable results of Trump’s tariff foolishness. But the reach of those tariffs goes much farther.

• Roughly 30% of the products in Target stores are imported from China. It’s not like there’s an equivalent alternative to Walmart that escapes the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

• Approximately 71% of products sold on Amazon are manufactured in China. So if you think Amazon might be a viable alternative to Walmart, you’ll be hit there with the same price increases and shortages of stock that will affect Walmart.

• Online stores like Temu and Shein have found a foothold in the U.S. because of their sometimes absurdly low prices. But those stores both ship 100% of their goods directly to consumers — from China.

• Home Depot executives have already publicly warned of the negative effects of Trump’s tariffs because of the preponderance of Chinese goods in their stores.

• Harbor Freight Tools, the chain that has built its brand on a reputation for reasonably priced entry-level tools for contractors and homeowners alike, estimates that 85% of the stock in its stores comes from China.

So let’s say you live in a rural area. You keep yourself and your family afloat because there’s a Walmart near you. Maybe there’s a also a Target nearby and perhaps there’s also have a Dollar Tree/Family Dollar or a Dollar General. — stores that are already struggling but that have a significant number of their products imported from China.

Virtually all the focus has been on the tariffs being imposed on Chinese goods, but all those stores also carry products from other countries with Trump-imposed tariffs. Stores like Gap and Old Navy, for example, carry clothing manufactured in places like Vietnam and Bangladesh.

The impact on consumers will become obvious in the very near future. But there will also be impacts on the companies themselves and, by extension, their stock prices. The stock markets have dipped roughly 20% overall since Inauguration Day and people who are fortunate enough to have IRAs or 401(k)s are already feeling the pinch. Trump’s erratic tariff plan leaves everyone wondering, including economists and institutional investors.

If there’s any silver lining to this chaos, it’s that many MAGA folks are already expressing regrets regarding tariffs. The imminent second wave of effects of tariffs will spawn a commensurate second wave of disgruntlement with Trump.

One of Trump’s few real skills is his salesmanship. He’s been able to build the Trump brand by relentlessly talking things up, whether it’s condos or steaks or casinos. He’s been relying on this go-to tactic of hype to keep his political followers on the hook, but his hype is increasingly unconvincing. His followers — especially his rural followers — are the ones who will be hit the hardest by these tariffs because they have few other options.

The Reagan-era theory of “trickle down economics” has been thoroughly discredited. But there’s an unintended economic phenomenon that truly does trickle down. All of the failures, the short-sightedness, the seemingly random decisions around Trump’s tariff policies do, in fact, trickle down. Every bit of the cost of his institutionalized stupidity trickles down directly to the consumer.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not reveling in the fact that our fellow citizens are being harmed by Trump’s policies. I’m merely pointing out that, over time, Trump’s most ardent devotees are the ones who will be hit the hardest, and the consequences will be further abandonment of Trump and Trumpism. And that’s a good thing.