Too Soon? Nope. (Part 2)
There may be more flippable Senate seats than those being targeted by the DNC. Here are some other opportunities.
Related Post: Too Soon? Nope (Part 1)
In my earlier post, I took a look at the Senate seats that the Democratic National Committee considers “must win” races if Democrats are to regain the majority in the 2026 midterm elections. But that list seemed a bit unambitious.
Given the distaste for the current administration (as evidenced by some of the lowest presidential approval numbers in history, along with record-breaking protests), it makes sense to widen the lens to include more potentially flippable seats. Of course, Democrats want to achieve a majority in the Senate. But if Democrats were to win all of those “must win” races, they’d only squeak out the narrowest of margins, leaving Democrats somewhat vulnerable.
Even in normal times, midterm elections favor the opposition party. In this cycle, resistance to the Trump and Republican agenda is strong and loud. Let’s hope the DNC has higher aspirations than just the “must win” races. To borrow Barack Obama’s word choice, it should be a drubbing.
Here are a few more potential seats where a Democrat might prevail:
Maine — The perpetually concerned Susan Collins is the only national level Republican in her predominantly Democratic state. She certainly hasn’t made any new friends in recent years with her waffling — always expressing the requisite levels of concern with Trump and his policies but almost never voting against anything Trump wants pushed through the legislature. It would seem that her longevity as a Senator is the only thing going for her.
As of this writing, although speculation is strong, no Democrats have announced their candidacy for the seat. But if there were ever a chance for a strong Democratic candidate to show Sen. Collins the exit, this would be the year.Iowa — “Graveyard Joni” Ernst might very well be vulnerable. Everybody seemed to despise her following her shockingly callous “everybody dies” statement at her town hall and her even more offensive non-apology cemetery stunt. There are rumblings that she might be leaving the Senate of her own free will, perhaps because she knows her chances of re-election are dwindling. A strong opponent might very well be able to boot her out of that seat. An interesting Democratic primary is taking shape, with three worthy contenders having already announced their candidacies:
IA State Rep. J.D. Scholten — Scholten’s campaign materials hit all the right populist notes, coming out forcefully against the billionaire class that many have railed against in the last several years. (We could use a decent J.D. in D.C.)
Nathan Sage — Sage is a marine veteran and a mechanic, and seems to be campaigning as a “working man’s candidate.” His military background and man-of-the-people persona is probably very appealing to voters.
IA State Sen. Zack Wahls — At the national level, Wahls probably has the most name recognition of these three contenders, having become something of a media figure for regularly speaking out about LGBTQ rights and other progressive issues.
Kentucky — Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has announced that he is finally retiring after more than 40 years in the Senate. McConnell’s decades-long effort to stack our federal courts with right-wing judges has resulted in judges and Supreme Court justices who have ruled against the best interests of Kentuckians. Additionally, McConnell voted in favor of defunding FEMA and slashing Medicaid funding as part of the Big Bad Budget Bill, despite the fact that Kentucky — like most red states — historically receives far more federal dollars for such programs than they contribute in taxes.
One reason Kentuckians have continued to support McConnell is his seniority in the Senate. With the advantages of seniority removed, there’s one less reason for on-the-fence voters to vote for a Republican. There are plenty of reasons to vote against a Republican nominee. Add to that the fact that Kentucky is a state with a Democratic governor who is respected by voters of both parties and has won his gubernatorial elections twice, and there’s high potential for a flipped Senate seat.South Carolina — The race for the South Carolina Senate seat may be the longest of long shots in this extremely conservative Republican state. But it would certainly be a symbolic victory to unseat Trump toady and senior Senator Lindsay Graham. Graham already has a formidable MAGA primary challenger — Paul Dans, one of the chief authors of Project 2025.
Should Dans prevail in the primary, there will be an energized opposition, given the damage that Trump’s allegiance to Project 2025 is doing. It’s a race that would surely attract national attention — and campaign dollars.
Should Graham survive the primary challenge, there will still be plenty for a Democrat to run against, not the least of which is his sycophancy to Trump and his waffling on fundamental issues based on Trump’s whims. Graham is also an armchair war hawk who seems to view all our international relations through a military lens, in a political climate in which Republicans elected a President who promised to cease U.S. military intervention.
The midterms are more than a year away so, admittedly, much of this speculation may not be applicable even a few months from now. All the Senate races will probably have different parameters by Election Day. But for Democratic voters who have not paid much attention to midterms in previous election cycles, it’s critical not to disengage this time around. We have an opportunity to put the brakes on this runaway administration by returning the House and Senate to a Democratic majority.
At the very least, we need to demand that Congressional Democrats do everything in their power to magnify the discontent with Trump and his enablers among their populations. It seems like many Congressional Democrats have simply adopted a “keep your head down” approach, which not only doesn’t work but also is the polar opposite of what is needed now. Hiding from autocracy doesn’t make it go away. It only makes it more likely.